Which Leading Indicators
Best Predict Market Declines?

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Understanding How Reliable—Or Unreliable—Widely-Followed Indicators Are for Predicting Market Declines
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In this research, we look at the accuracy and consistency of "overvaluation" alarms from 7 widely-followed leading indicators. Going back to 1950, we measure indicators' correlations with S&P 500 forward returns and how early of a warning they gave investors.

Our findings aim to give advisors, planners, and their clients additional perspective on the reliability of valuation indicators, and help prepare themselves for possible market declines.

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